Deniz Aksoy, Ted Enamorado, and Tony Yang's co-authored paper “Russian Invasion of Ukraine and Chinese Public Support for War” has been published in International Organization. The article can be read here.
Abstract: This study examines how the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent Western responses influence Chinese public opinion toward the use of force. Using two original, pre-registered online survey experiments, first in June 2022 and then in June 2023, we show that the Russian invasion is associated with a modest but statistically significant increase in Chinese support for using military force in international affairs in general and against Taiwan in particular. However, information about Western military measures aiding Ukraine curbs the modest impact of the invasion. Such information is especially effective in diminishing support for an outright military invasion of Taiwan. Causal mediation analyses reveal that the Russian invasion influences public opinion by inducing optimistic expectations of military success and pessimistic expectations of peaceful conflict resolution. These findings underline the possibility that foreign military aggression and subsequent international countermeasures can be determinants of domestic public opinion toward using military force.
Deniz Aksoy is an Associate Professor of Political Science; Ted Enamorado is an Assistant Professor of Political Science; and Tony Yang is a rising PhD graduate who will begin as Assistant Professor at Emory University this fall.
